DEBATE NIGHT – TRUMP COMMANDS – AT 8:46 A.M. ET:  As readers know, my enthusiasm for Donald Trump is limited.  Maybe it's because we know him in New York as a showman, not a statesman.  And he isn't helped by the vulgarity of his comments.

At the same time, Trump has tapped into an anger and discontent that much of the media has ignored, or, in some cases, didn't know was even there.  One of my legitimate gripes about the American press is that it doesn't really know its own country.  And it certainly doesn't like what it does know.

The Republican debate is tonight.  It promises to be exciting, and tense.  From The Hill:

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump has increased his lead over GOP rivals to its largest margin yet in an ABC News/Washington Post poll released early Tuesday.

Trump sits at 38 percent among registered Republicans and GOP-leaning independents in the latest survey, followed by Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) at 15 percent, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) at 12 percent and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 12 percent.

All other candidates remain in the single digits, with former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush taking 5 percent in the latest survey to round out the top five candidates.

Cruz has essentially doubled his support in the poll compared to last month, while Carson's support has been cut roughly in half. Trump has gained 6 points and Rubio has gained 1 point since mid-November.

National polls are viewed with less emphasis than those conducted in states where the first votes in the nominating process are cast starting in early February.

Cruz led Trump in Iowa in a Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll released over the weekend, and the dynamic between the two will be of major interest at the latest GOP debate Tuesday night.

Trump has maintained a solid lead in New Hampshire polls, though several rivals pushing for establishment support have shifted in polling position recently.

The latest ABC/Post survey finds Trump trailing Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in a head-to-head matchup, 53 to 40 percent among adults. It's a 6-point margin among registered voters, however.

COMMENT:  And among likely voters it's probably even closer.  The point is that there is no great yearning for Hillary.  A good Republican candidate could probably defeat her, even if she survives the FBI investigation into her e-mail records.

But finding that Republican candidate could be difficult.  The party has a long record of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. 

As for Trump, it's hard to determine if his support can translate into the 50% plus one of delegates to the national convention.  His negatives are also very high.  And opposition to him has yet to focus on one competitor.

December 15,  2015